Back in 1933, writer H.G. Wells published a work of fiction called the Shape of Things to Come. My friend Lakersfrommass said the title sounds like a porn movie, and while that is true, it's not (but maybe someone should make one with that title). And while Well's book was indeed filmed more than once, instead of it being about porn it is about what was to come. In it he tried to envision and guess the future from 1933 to 2016.
Some of Well's predictions were very accurate, including World War Two and massive air forces bombing countries into devastation and exhaustion. Many of his others were off the mark.
The reason I mention this is because for a really good sports FO and GM, trying to see not only up the hallway of the future, but around the corner is essential in plotting and making the correct moves. The difference between Well's and a GM is for Well's there is no penalty for being wrong, for the GM the damages can last years.
That being said, what is the Shape of Things to Come for the NBA and consequently the Lakers and how should what we think will happen, what we guess could eventuate, affect what we do?
Right now we know some truths that are obvious. Golden State, barring serious injuries is the best team in the league and will likely win the title again this year. And they should be a monster team for at least two more years, before age, defections, inertia and ennui start to dissolve them from what they are now. Nothing stays the same forever.
Houston seems to be the second best team in the west and have the best record, but I have a very hard time seeing a team with harden and Paul finding a way to take a healthy Warrior team over seven games.
In the east with Irving's season ending injury you have Cleveland, with OK but not special talent and the incomparable Lebron James. Incomparable for now, but maybe not much longer and I'll get to that in a bit. Cleveland has to be favored to get to the final because of James and the weakness of the east. You have Toronto who will have the best record, but we know what happens to them. Then you have another team, Philly, but let's get back to them in a bit too, you will see why.
So right now, in the present, when talking about the elite teams you have Golden State, Houston, Cleveland and next year with the return of Gordan and Irving, Boston. With those players they could well become at least the second best team in the league.
And what of the Lakers? Our team has a terrific young group of players. And we all can see where this may be heading in a few years. We are all thinking about championship appearances down the road when the kids become men. Yet there is something else in play here that some of us may like and others not: We all know the master plan. Magic and Pelinka are determined to bring Lebron and George here, or maybe Leonard if one of the others fall through. Their goal is nothing less than winning the title next year.
I have made my feelings known about this option, I am against it. For me it a short term plan for short term gain. It is also predicated on integrating these new players into a new system, with a new coach, with new, young teammates and hoping they get good enough, fast enough to not only become better than the top teams but good enough to beat a veteran, great Golden State championship team still in it's prime. Could it happen? Maybe.
But here is another reason I don't like it. In order to do this the Lakers will have to jettison some good, young players I would like to have around for the long term, including Caldwell Pope and even more so Julius Randle. There is no getting around it. So you are mortgaging a large part of the future on the fast gamble.
And here is another concern of mine: Lebron has to play with the ball to be effective. There is another player who meets that criteria, Lonzo Ball. So if Lebron comes here, what does that do to Magic's face of the franchise? Unless something dramatic and quick happens with Ball's scoring and shooting, it's not like you can make him a scorer or spot up shooter for Lebron. Do the Lakers want to go that route. Also, do you want to bring in two forwards, Lebron and George/Leonard when we have Kuzma, Ingram and Randle already?
I could see bringing in one of them, my pick would be Leonard, because he is the best two way player in the game and very unselfish. He would fit here and add something good.
But even that would not be my first choice and this is where I put on my GM/H.G. Wells hat and try to envision the Shape of Things to Come in the NBA.
And that brings me back to my two statements before about Philly and Lebron James being incomparable now, but maybe not much longer.
When try to see down that hallway of the future, and further, around the corner I ask myself, where is the threat to this young Lakers team when Kuzma, Randle, Ball, Ingram are entering their primes? Which team could stop them from being the rulers of this league, prevent this talented corp from winning NBA titles in three, four, five years?
It won't be Cleveland. Not Golden State. Nor Houston. Maybe Boston yes, but I see something much better and more sinister down that road and it is the Philadelphia 76ers. And there are a lot of reasons why.
First off is Ben Simmons. It is becoming apparent that this guy is not only going to be the heir apparent to Lebron as the best player in the league but has a legit chance to be one of the top ten players in NBA history. Too early to say that? Maybe, but remember I've put on my GM/H.G. Wells hat here. I'm trying to gauge the threats we will face when it's our turn and when I see Simmons doing what he is doing, in his first year, it is flat out scary and I don't think I am being premature in saying this guy could become a legend, one of the best players of all time.
But that might not even be the largest concern here. That may be another tremendous player they have and the unique challenge he presents to us, Joel Embid. This guy has the look of a monster center, on a par with Anthony Davis and the problem that creates for us is this, we have nothing to even try combat that with.
When you watch Davis or Embid play against us, it brings me to mind of the days we had Vlad Divac and played the Spurs with David Robinson. Those of you old enough know exactly what I am talking about; Robinson could do whatever he wanted to us whenever he wanted and the stat lines were usually like this: 37 points, 17 rebounds and horrific losses to the Spurs.
But that's not all. The Sixers also have Markelle Fultz. He has been hurt most of the year but if he turns out to be the player rated above and drafted ahead of Lonzo Ball, we know what he will be. On top of this, they also will have a top ten draft pick this year and two picks in the first round. And that is not only the Shape of Things to Come for the NBA and the Lakers, and it's frightening.
So when I look down the hallway of the future, and try peek around the corner, two when our young players are ready to make contend, I don't see Boston, Golden State, Cleveland, the Spurs, Houston or any of the teams predominant now. I don't see Durant or Curry or Lebron standing in our way. I see the Sixers, I see Simmons and Embid and Fultz and others we don't even know about yet.
So the question is, what can we do, now and the next year or so to be ready for what Philly will bring to the table?
As far as Simmons goes, perhaps not much. He's just that great and talented in so many areas. You can double him. Or...maybe in two years a bigger, stronger Ingram can take up the defense challenge and mitigate him to a degree. Simmons is so very powerful so a lot would depend on how strong Ingram can get. But he has the size and arm length to be as effective a defender as you can have against a monster like Simmons.
And that brings me back to Embid. Can you in say three years envision our team, as currently constituted beating the Sixers, Simmons, Fultz and Embid in the finals? I have a hard time doing it for this reason, you can't beat a team over seven games that has a guy as great as Simmons and then coupled with a guy like Embid who will pull the David Robinson vs Vlad Divac scenario, game after game after game with no answer from us.
We could hope that Zubac is the answer by then. He shows flashes of being something really good. He also shows flashes of being just a serviceable, very flawed center, not something you even hope to throw against Embid unless you want to get killed.
Which now brings me full circle to what the Lakers should try to do, something I really didn't want to do a few years back but I am now thinking is becoming essential if this young team has any chance to meet the Philly threat right when both teams are hitting their primes. It comes back to this, you know how the Lakers mitigated the David Robinson problem? They got Shaq and suddenly Robinson went from a Pit Bull to Miniature French Poodle against the Lakers.
The Lakers aren't going to get anyone to turn Embid into a poodle, but they can get someone to mitigate the damage he does to an extent where we would have a fighting chance against the Sixers.
A few years ago, Mitch Kupchak wanted to bring in DeMarcus Cousins. I didn't want to make that move for a couple reasons. First off, the trade would have cost too many draft picks. Adding Cousins would not have helped that pathetic team one bit. It was bringing in a dog and pony show to please entertainment starved fans. Second, I heard a guy on the radio talking about Cousins and what he was like in Sacramento and it was a horror show. If things didn't go the way he wanted, he pouted, he didn't defend, he didn't pass, he didn't run, he didn't rebound. Anyone listening to that show knew why you didn't want this guy to come to the Lakers.
There is risk here. On top of that, you have the Achilles injury. But he is young and if our medical staff says the injury is healing as desired, I think I would have to take that chance. And we would have to hope that Cousins will have a total change in attitude playing with an exciting young, unselfish team.
But I would take that risk. Because he is one of the few players in this league who can mitigate Embid, make him work, make things hard for him on both ends of the floor.
And I think this has to be because I just can't see this Lakers team beating Philly when they have a guy like Simmons playing with a center like Embid who can do anything he wants with us when he wants to do it. I just don't see how this team will beat that one unless we get our Shaq to antidote their Robinson to some degree, so to speak.
There is another advantage to this, if the FO changes their plan from Lebron and George to just Cousins, that means we can keep Randle and Pope too.
In the early eighties, the Sixers and Lakers paired off three times in the finals. Both had great teams with terrific players. The first two times they met the Lakers won because they had a transcendent multi talent named Magic Johnson and a center named Jabber who could do whatever he wanted against Philly whenever he wanted.
The Sixers won the third meeting because they went out and got an antidote to Jabbar named Moses Malone. If they hadn't gotten Malone, they would have lost all three.
And I'm starting to get this feeling that those old Lakers-Sixers title series may get a second version soon. But this time around, I see them with the Magic and Jabbar, not us.
So while Magic and Pelinka are looking at the now, casting their hopes for a quick fix and not a long term solution, I'm putting on my H.G. Wells hat and looking a bit further down, to Shape of Things to Come. To the bigger, real threat that will be there when our team and it's young players hits its prime. And if the Lakers don't make the right moves now, that shape will be dictated in the City of Brotherly Love while the City of Angeles will only watch and think about what might have been and won't ever happen as long as Embid runs free against us.




